MEKSEA.COM – In 2023, a year full of uncertainties is coming to a close, and optimistic signs in the seafood production sector are emerging, indicating a positive shift in the global market in 2024.

According to a recent report from Rabobank, the prospects for seafood production and business in 2024 are more optimistic than in 2023. Global shrimp production is predicted to rebound in 2024, although the volume is expected to be lower than the 10-year historical average. The Global Aquaculture Alliance (GAA) survey forecasts a 4.8% growth in global shrimp production in 2024, surpassing the peak recorded in 2022 after a slight decline of 0.4% in 2023.

Fish farming, primarily salmon, tilapia, pangasius, and barramundi, is also showing positive signals with expectations of strong growth, despite the potential risks posed by El Niño for some species and farming regions. Atlantic salmon production in Q3/2023 experienced a significant breakthrough after two consecutive years of slow growth. According to GAA predictions, global salmon production in 2024 and 2025 will increase by 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively, led by Norway.

In contrast to salmon, the tuna industry faced several challenges, with production nearly stagnant in 2020. GAA predicts a 5.3% increase in global tuna production in 2024 compared to the previous year, surpassing 2019. The Asia-Pacific region, especially Indonesia, is expected to be a bright spot in tuna production, despite China maintaining its leading position in output.

Nikolic also notes that the sub-Saharan Africa region will become new hubs for tuna on the global map. Apart from favorable conditions for tuna production, the sub-Saharan region is also a potential consumption market. Tuna farms in this area actively invest in genetic improvement and feed technology to increase production and gradually replace imported tuna from China.

The annual inflation rate for the European region in September dropped to 4.3% compared to the same period in 2022, according to Eurostat. Supply chain constraints and energy prices have eased as the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis subsides, but inflation still affects the global economy.

GAA’s survey results show that most seafood market experts remain concerned about the potential hindrance of price factors to production recovery. Market prices are the biggest concern due to the persistent global economic uncertainties caused by prolonged inflation, impeding the recovery of consumer demand for seafood products.

In many major markets such as the United States and Europe, expenses continue to rise while household incomes decline, forcing families to tighten their budgets. Therefore, consumers may reduce expensive seafood items from their daily menus or choose lower-priced protein alternatives.

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By Hayati (Meksea Team)

(hayati@mekseaconnection.com)

(Reference: VASEP)

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